What causes price fluctuations in agricultural markets

New NBER Papers - 12/19/2016

For access to gated papers, make a request on /Scholar. Most papers can also be found, ungated, on their author's website.
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Learning, Confidence, and Business Cycles Cosmin L. Ilut Hikaru Saijo
We build a tractable heterogeneous-firm business cycle model where firms face Knightian uncertainty about their profitability and learn it through production. The cross-sectional mean of firm-level uncertainty is high in recessions because firms invest and hire less. The higher uncertainty reduces agents' confidence and further discourages economic activity. We characterize this feedback mechanism in linear, workhorse macroeconomic models and find that it endogenously generates empirically desirable cross-equation restrictions such as: amplified and hump-shaped dynamics, co-movement driven by demand shocks and countercyclical correlated wedges in the equilibrium conditions for labor, risk-free and risky assets. In a rich model estimated on US macroeconomic and financial data, the information friction changes inference and significantly reduces the empirical need for standard real and nominal rigidities. Furthermore, endogenous idiosyncratic uncertainty propagates shocks to financial conditions, disciplined by observed spreads, as key drivers of fluctuations, and magnifies the aggregate activity's response to monetary and fiscal policies.
Estimating market power Evidence from the US Brewing Industry Jan De Loecker Paul T. Scott
While inferring markups from demand data is common practice, estimation relies on difficult-to-test assumptions, including a specific model of how firms compete. Alternatively, markups can be inferred from production data, again relying on a set of difficult-to-test assumptions, but a wholly different set, including the assumption that firms minimize costs using a variable input. Relying on data from the US brewing industry, we directly compare markup estimates from the two approaches. After implementing each approach for a broad set of assumptions and specifications, we find that both approaches provide similar and plausible markup estimates in most cases. The results illustrate how using the two strategies together can allow researchers to evaluate structural models and identify problematic assumptions.
Energy Efficiency Standards Are More Regressive Than Energy Taxes: Theory and Evidence Arik Levinson
Economists promote energy taxes as cost-effective. But policymakers raise concerns about their regressivity, or disproportional burden on poorer families, preferring to set energy efficiency standards instead. I first show that in theory, regulations targeting energy efficiency are more regressive than energy taxes, not less. I then provide an example in the context of automotive fuel consumption in the United States: taxing gas would be less regressive than regulating the fuel economy of cars if the two policies are compared on a revenue-equivalent basis.
Agricultural Fires and Infant Health Marcos A. Rangel Tom Vogl
Fire has long served as a tool in agriculture, but this practice's human capital consequences have proved difficult to study. Drawing on data from satellites, air monitors, and vital records, we study how smoke from sugarcane harvest fires affects infant health in the Brazilian state that produces one-fifth of the world's sugarcane. Because fires track economic activity, we exploit wind for identification, finding that late-pregnancy exposure to upwind fires decreases birth weight, gestational length, and in utero survival, but not early neonatal survival. Other fires positively predict health, highlighting the importance of disentangling pollution from economic activities that drive it.
A Behavioral New Keynesian Model Xavier Gabaix
This paper presents a framework for analyzing how bounded rationality affects monetary and fiscal policy. The model is a tractable and parsimonious enrichment of the widely-used New Keynesian model – with one main new parameter, which quantifies how poorly agents understand future policy and its impact. That myopia parameter, in turn, affects the power of monetary and fiscal policy in a microfounded general equilibrium.
How Destructive is Innovation? Daniel Garcia-Macia Chang-Tai Hsieh Peter J. Klenow
Entrants and incumbents can create new products and displace the products of competitors. Incumbents can also improve their existing products. How much of aggregate productivity growth occurs through each of these channels? Using data from the U.S. Longitudinal Business Database on all non-farm private businesses from 1976–1986 and 2003–2013, we arrive at three main conclusions: First, most growth appears to come from incumbents. We infer this from the modest employment share of entering firms (defined as those less than 5 years old). Second, most growth seems to occur through improvements of existing varieties rather than creation of brand new varieties. Third, own-product improvements by incumbents appear to be more important than creative destruction. We infer this because the distribution of job creation and destruction has thinner tails than implied by a model with a dominant role for creative destruction.
Some Simple Economics of the Blockchain Christian Catalini Joshua S. Gans
We rely on economic theory to discuss how blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies will influence the rate and direction of innovation. We identify two key costs that are affected by distributed ledger technology: 1) the cost of verification; and 2) the cost of networking. Markets facilitate the voluntary exchange of goods and services between buyers and sellers. For an exchange to be executed, key attributes of a transaction need to be verified by the parties involved at multiple points in time. Blockchain technology, by allowing market participants to perform costless verification, lowers the costs of auditing transaction information, and allows new marketplaces to emerge. Furthermore, when a distributed ledger is combined with a native cryptographic token (as in Bitcoin), marketplaces can be bootstrapped without the need of traditional trusted intermediaries, lowering the cost of networking. This challenges existing revenue models and incumbents's market power, and opens opportunities for novel approaches to regulation, auctions and the provision of public goods, software, identity and reputation systems.
Interfirm Relationships and Business Performance Jing Cai Adam Szeidl
We organized business associations for the owner-managers of randomly selected young Chinese firms to study the effect of business networks on firm performance. We randomized 2,800 firms into small groups whose managers held monthly meetings for one year, and into a “no- meetings” control group. We find that: (1) The meetings increased firm revenue by 8.1 percent, and also significantly increased profit, factors, inputs, the number of partners, borrowing, and a management score; (2) These effects persisted one year after the conclusion of the meetings; and (3) Firms randomized to have better peers exhibited higher growth. We exploit additional interventions to document concrete channels. (4) Managers shared exogenous business-relevant information, particularly when they were not competitors, showing that the meetings facilitated learning from peers. (5) Managers created more business partnerships in the regular than in other one-time meetings, showing that the meetings improved supplier-client matching. (6) Firms whose managers discussed management, partners, or finance improved more in the associated domain, suggesting that the content of conversations shaped the nature of gains.
Targeting Policies: Multiple Testing and Distributional Treatment Effects Steven F. Lehrer R. Vincent Pohl Kyungchul Song
Economic theory often predicts that treatment responses may depend on individuals’ characteristics and location on the outcome distribution. Policymakers need to account for such treatment effect heterogeneity in order to efficiently allocate resources to subgroups that can successfully be targeted by a policy. However, when interpreting treatment effects across subgroups and the outcome distribution, inference has to be adjusted for multiple hypothesis testing to avoid an overestimation of positive treatment effects. We propose six new tests for treatment effect heterogeneity that make corrections for the family-wise error rate and that identify subgroups and ranges of the outcome distribution exhibiting economically and statistically significant treatment effects. We apply these tests to individual responses to welfare reform and show that welfare recipients benefit from the reform in a smaller range of the earnings distribution than previously estimated. Our results shed new light on effectiveness of welfare reform and demonstrate the importance of correcting for multiple testing.
Leveling the Playing Field: How Campaign Advertising Can Help Non-Dominant Parties Horacio A. Larreguy John Marshall James M. Snyder, Jr.
Voters are often uncertain about and biased against non-dominant political parties. By reducing the information gap with dominant parties, political advertising may thus disproportionately benefit non-dominant parties electorally. We test this argument in Mexico, where three main parties dominate many localities. To identify the effects of exposure to partisan advertising, we exploit differences across neighboring precincts in campaign ad distributions arising from cross-state media coverage spillovers induced by a 2007 reform that equalized access to ad slots across all broadcast media. Our results show that ads on AM radio increase the vote shares of the PAN and PRD, but not the previously-hegemonic PRI. Consistent with our model, campaign advertising is most effective in poorly informed and politically uncompetitive electoral precincts, and against locally dominant parties of intermediate strength.
Understanding Inflation in India Laurence Ball Anusha Chari Prachi Mishra
This paper examines the behavior of quarterly inflation in India since 1994, both headline inflation and core inflation as measured by the weighted median of price changes across industries. We explain core inflation with a Phillips curve in which the inflation rate depends on a slow-moving average of past inflation and on the deviation of output from trend. Headline inflation is more volatile than core: it fluctuates due to large changes in the relative prices of certain industries, which are largely but not exclusively industries that produce food and energy. There is some evidence that changes in headline inflation feed into expected inflation and future core inflation. Several aspects of India’s inflation process are similar to inflation in advanced economies in the 1970s and 80s.
Growth Policy, Agglomeration, and (the Lack of) Competition Wyatt J. Brooks Joseph P. Kaboski Yao Amber Li
Industrial clusters are promoted by policy and generally viewed as good for growth and development, but both clusters and policies may also enable non-competitive behavior. This paper studies the presence of non-competitive pricing in geographic industrial clusters. We develop, validate, and apply a novel test for collusive behavior. We derive the test from the solution to a partial cartel of perfectly colluding firms in an industry. Outside of a cartel, a firm's markup depends on its market share, but in the cartel, markups across firms converge and depend instead on the total market share of the cartel. Empirically, we validate the test using plants with common owners, and then test for collusion using data from Chinese manufacturing firms (1999-2009). We find strong evidence for non-competitive pricing within a subset of industrial clusters, and we find the level of non-competitive pricing is about four times higher in Chinese special economic zones than outside those zones.
How Large Are the Gains from Economic Integration? Theory and Evidence from U.S. Agriculture, 1880-1997 Arnaud Costinot Dave Donaldson
In this paper we develop a new approach to measuring the gains from economic integration based on a generalization of the Ricardian model in which heterogeneous factors of production are allocated to multiple sectors in multiple local markets based on comparative advantage. We implement this approach using data on crop markets in approximately 2,600 U.S. counties from 1880 to 1997. Central to our empirical analysis is the use of a novel agronomic data source on predicted output by crop for small spatial units. Crucially, this dataset contains information about the productivity of all units for all crops, not just those that are actually being grown—an essential input for measuring the gains from trade. Using this new approach we find substantial long-run gains from economic integration among US agricultural markets, benefits that are similar in magnitude to those due to productivity improvements over that same period.
Distributional National Accounts: Methods and Estimates for the United States Thomas Piketty Emmanuel Saez Gabriel Zucman
This paper combines tax, survey, and national accounts data to estimate the distribution of national income in the United States since 1913. Our distributional national accounts capture 100% of national income, allowing us to compute growth rates for each quantile of the income distribution consistent with macroeconomic growth. We estimate the distribution of both pre-tax and post-tax income, making it possible to provide a comprehensive view of how government redistribution affects inequality. Average pre-tax national income per adult has increased 60% since 1980, but we find that it has stagnated for the bottom 50% of the distribution at about $16,000 a year. The pre-tax income of the middle class—adults between the median and the 90th percentile—has grown 40% since 1980, faster than what tax and survey data suggest, due in particular to the rise of tax-exempt fringe benefits. Income has boomed at the top: in 1980, top 1% adults earned on average 27 times more than bottom 50% adults, while they earn 81 times more today. The upsurge of top incomes was first a labor income phenomenon but has mostly been a capital income phenomenon since 2000. The government has offset only a small fraction of the increase in inequality. The reduction of the gender gap in earnings has mitigated the increase in inequality among adults. The share of women, however, falls steeply as one moves up the labor income distribution, and is only 11% in the top 0.1% today.
Globalization and Wage Inequality Elhanan Helpman
Globalization has been blamed for rising inequality in rich and poor countries. Yet the views of many protagonists in this debate are not based on evidence. To help form an evidence-based opinion, I review in this paper the theoretical and empirical literature on the relationship between globalization and wage inequality. While the initial analysis that started in the early 1990s focused on a particular mechanism that links trade to wages, subsequent studies have considered several other channels, and the quantitative assessment of the size of these influences has been carried out in multiple studies. Building on this research, I conclude that trade played an appreciable role in increasing wage inequality, but that its cumulative effect has been modest, and that globalization does not explain the preponderance of the rise in wage inequality within countries.
Dominant Currency Paradigm Camila Casas Federico J. Díez Gita Gopinath Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Most trade is invoiced in very few currencies. Despite this, the Mundell-Fleming benchmark and its variants focus on pricing in the producer's currency or in local currency. We model instead a ‘dominant currency paradigm’ for small open economies characterized by three features: pricing in a dominant currency; pricing complementarities, and imported input use in production. Under this paradigm: (a) terms of trade are stable; (b) dominant currency exchange rate pass-through into export and import prices is high regardless of destination or origin of goods; (c) exchange rate pass-through of non-dominant currencies is small; (d) expenditure switching occurs mostly via imports and export expansions following depreciations are weak. Using merged firm level and customs data from Colombia we document strong support for the dominant currency paradigm and reject the alternatives of producer currency and local currency pricing.
Older Peoples' Willingness to Delay Social Security Claiming Raimond Maurer Olivia S. Mitchell
We have designed and fielded an experimental module in the 2014 HRS which seeks to measure older persons’ willingness to voluntarily defer claiming of Social Security benefits. In addition, we evaluate the stated willingness of older individuals to work longer, depending on the Social Security incentives offered to delay claiming their benefits. Our project extends previous work by analyzing the results from our HRS module and comparing findings from other data sources which included very much smaller samples of older persons. We show that half of the respondents would delay claiming if no work requirement were in place under the status quo, and only slightly fewer, 46%, with a work requirement. We also asked respondents how large a lump sum they would need with or without a work requirement. In the former case, the average amount needed to induce delayed claiming was about $60,400, while when part-time work was required, the average was $66,700. This implies a low utility value of leisure foregone of only $6,300, or under 20% of average household income.
Business Cycles, Investment Shocks, and the "Barro-King" Curse Guido Ascari Louis Phaneuf Eric Sims
Recent empirical evidence identifies investment shocks as key driving forces behind business cycle fluctuations. However, existing New Keynesian models emphasizing these shocks counterfactually imply a negative unconditional correlation between consumption growth and investment growth, a weak positive unconditional correlation between consumption growth and output growth and anomalous profiles of cross-correlations involving consumption growth. These anomalies arise because of a short-run contractionary effect a positive investment shock on consumption. Such counterfactual co-movements are typical of the "Barro-King curse" (Barro and King 1984), wherein models with a real business cycle core must rely on technology shocks to account for the observed co-movement among output, consumption, investment, and hours. We show that two realistic additions to an otherwise standard medium scale New Keynesian model – namely, roundabout production and real per capita output growth stemming from trend growth in neutral and investment-specific technologies – can break the Barro-King curse and provide a more accurate account of unconditional business cycle comovements more generally. These two features substantially magnify the effects of neutral technology and investment shocks on aggregate fluctuations and generate a rise of consumption on impact of a positive investment shock.
Sanitation, Disease Externalities, and Anemia: Evidence From Nepal Diane Coffey Michael Geruso Dean Spears
Anemia impairs physical and cognitive development in children and reduces human capital accumulation. The prior economics literature has focused on the role of inadequate nutrition in causing anemia. This paper is the first to show that sanitation, a public good, significantly contributes to preventing anemia. We identify effects by exploiting rapid and differential improvement in sanitation across regions of Nepal between 2006 and 2011. Within regions over time, cohorts of children exposed to better community sanitation developed higher hemoglobin levels. Our results highlight a previously undocumented externality of open defecation, which is today practiced by over a billion people worldwide.
Asymmetric Effects of Non-Pecuniary Signals on Search and Purchase Behavior for Energy-Efficient Durable Goods J. Scott Holladay Jacob LaRiviere David M. Novgorodsky Michael Price
We report the results of a field experiment where we exogenously vary the use of social comparisons "nudges" and subsidies for participation in an in-home energy audit program, and follow subjects through to the subsequent purchase of durable goods. We therefore can compare the causal effect of financial incentives and nudges along two margins, audits, which we liken to search, and purchase of durables. Using data on nearly 100,000 households, we document an asymmetry; nudges increase audits, but lead to lower rates of purchase. We find no evidence of a differential response for those offered a financial incentive. These differences suggest heterogeneity in the motives of the marginal consumer induced by nudges versus prices.
Improving the Measurement of Earnings Dynamics Moira Daly Dmytro Hryshko Iourii Manovskii
The stochastic process for earnings is the key element of incomplete markets models in modern quantitative macroeconomics. We show that a simple modification of the canonical process used in the literature leads to a dramatic improvement in the measurement of earnings dynamics in administrative and survey data alike. Empirically, earnings at the start or end of earnings spells are lower and more volatile than the observations in the interior of earnings histories, reflecting the effects of working less than the full year as well as deviations of wages due to e.g. tenure effects. Ignoring these properties of earnings, as is standard in the literature, leads to a substantial mismeasurement of the variances of permanent and transitory shocks and induces the large and widely documented divergence in the estimates of these variances based on fitting the earnings moments in levels or growth rates. Accounting for these effects enables more accurate analysis using quantitative models with permanent and transitory earnings risk, and improves empirical estimates of consumption insurance against permanent earnings shocks.
A Tale of Two Tails: Commuting and the Fuel Price Response in Driving Kenneth Gillingham Anders Munk-Nielsen
The consumer price responsiveness of driving demand is central to the welfare consequences of fuel price changes. This study uses rich data covering the entire population of vehicles and consumers in Denmark to find a medium-run price elasticity of driving of -0.30. We uncover an important feature of driving demand: two small groups of much more responsive households that make up the lower and upper tails of the work distance distribution. The first group lives close to work in urban areas. The second group lives outside of major urban areas and has the longest commutes. Access to public transport appears to be the force behind the existence of the tails, enabling the switch away from driving. We find that a fuel price increase of 1 DKK/liter implies an average deadweight loss of 0.66 DKK/liter, but there is considerable heterogeneity and the tails bear a larger share of the loss.
Commitment vs. Flexibility with Costly Verification Marina Halac Pierre Yared
We introduce costly verification into a general delegation framework. A principal faces an agent who is better informed about the efficient action but biased towards higher actions. An audit verifies the agent’s information, but is costly. The principal chooses a permissible action set as a function of the audit decision and result. We show that if the audit cost is small enough, a threshold with an escape clause (TEC) is optimal: the agent can select any action up to a threshold, or request audit and the efficient action if the threshold is sufficiently binding. For higher audit costs, the principal may instead prefer auditing only intermediate actions. However, if the principal cannot commit to inefficient allocations following the audit decision and result, TEC is always optimal. Our results provide a theoretical foundation for the use of TEC in practice, including in capital budgeting in organizations, fiscal policy, and consumption-savings problems.
Recent Flattening in the Higher Education Wage Premium: Polarization, Skill Downgrading, or Both? Robert G. Valletta
Wage gaps between workers with a college or graduate degree and those with only a high school degree rose rapidly in the United States during the 1980s. Since then, the rate of growth in these wage gaps has progressively slowed, and though the gaps remain large, they were essentially unchanged between 2010 and 2015. I assess this flattening over time in higher education wage premiums with reference to two related explanations for changing U.S. employment patterns: (i) a shift away from middle-skilled occupations driven largely by technological change (“polarization”); and (ii) a general weakening in the demand for advanced cognitive skills (“skill downgrading”). Analyses of wage and employment data from the U.S. Current Population Survey suggest that both factors have contributed to the flattening of higher education wage premiums.
Meet the Oligarchs: Business Legitimacy, State Capacity and Taxation Rafael Di Tella Juan Dubra Alejandro Luis Lagomarsino
We analyze the role of people’s beliefs about the rich in the determination of public policy in the context of a randomized online survey experiment. A question we study is the desirability of government-private sector meetings, a variable we argue is connected to State capacity. Survey respondents primed with negative views about business leaders want fewer meetings, as well as higher taxes to the top 1% and more regulation. We also study how these effects change when subjects are (additionally) primed with positive/negative views about government officials. Distrust in the government increases the preferred tax rate on the top 1% only when business legitimacy is low. A model with multiple equilibria helps interpret these findings. In one of the equilibria, meetings are allowed, business legitimacy is high, and people set a low income tax rate for businesspeople. In the other, meetings are forbidden, business legitimacy is low, and people set high taxes to punish the businesspeople for their corrupt behavior.
Projections and Uncertainties About Climate Change in an Era of Minimal Climate Policies William D. Nordhaus
Climate change remains one of the major international environmental challenges facing nations. Yet nations have to date taken minimal policies to slow climate change. Moreover, there has been no major improvement in emissions trends as of the latest data. The current study uses the updated DICE model to present new projections and the impacts of alternative climate policies. It also presents a new set of estimates of the uncertainties about future climate change and compares the results will those of other integrated assessment models. The study confirms past estimates of likely rapid climate change over the next century if there are not major climate-change policies. It suggests that it will be extremely difficult to achieve the 2°C target of international agreements even if ambitious policies are introduced in the near term. The required carbon price needed to achieve current targets has risen over time as policies have been delayed.
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[uncensored-r/Bitcoin] Beyond Bitcoin (one)

The following post by valueshield is being replicated because the post has been silently removed.
The original post can be found(in censored form) at this link:
np.reddit.com/ Bitcoin/comments/7e8w6e
The original post's content was as follows:
Beyond Bitcoin Build Global Labor value (purchasing power) stored value tool--value Shield Genesis white Paper
One. Preface
When Einstein was playing with his son, the son said: "Dad, how do you know the earth is round?" Einstein replied: "Because Dad was like a little bee, flying over an apple, I knew it was round," he said.” Son heard giggling asked: "Dad, you're so smart, are there any problems you can't solve?"” Einstein answered: "Yes, for example, how to fairly distribute human labor wealth, I can not solve it." In general, the credibility of communication between father and son is very high, the analysis of the above dialogue, it is certain that Einstein spent time to study it, but did not succeed. The specific time spent is unknown, but is not a day two days, one month two months, but rather a long period of time. Otherwise, he would not give up easily, and called it a "difficult problem". The laborer assigns the hand naturally is the currency, therefore, Albert Einstein is one of the famous scientists who have studied the money. There are tens of thousands of problems in the world. They are all trades and professions. Why study as a great physicist and choose an economic issue should cause us to think deeply. Einstein's keen observation shows that this is a matter of great importance. If the solution is not good, it will be a huge obstacle to the progress of mankind. So that humans can not stand in the higher dimensions to look at their own future. Today, in the field of science and technology, humans have looked up and observed three of forms of neutrinos. The probe landed on mars; The Hubble telescope sees stars in the outer galaxies devouring the surrounding planets as they run out of energy. But in the political and economic sphere, human beings, especially those represented by the majority of Governments, are still like reptiles with low heads, and the jungle laws of the jungle are staged for their own benefit year after year.
Two. What is the currency used for?
  1. Societies without currency and gold and silver
? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
Commodity worker commodity
In this day and age, goods are used both for circulation and for storing value
  1. Modern society The basic economic activities of an ordinary adult can be summarized into the following two behaviors: A cycle: The sale of goods, the manufacture of goods, the sale of labor value in exchange for money.
? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
Commodity worker currency
B cycle: The worker uses money to get his own subsistence and what he wants.
Commodity worker currency
? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
In modern society, currency is used for circulation, and currency is also used for value storage.
From the above comparison, we can see that the circulation and storage value of the currency is essentially the circulation and storage value of the commodity, and the currency is the tool to help the laborers to accomplish the exchange and storage value of the goods. In addition, two cycles can be seen from the AB: 1. Laborers are the core.(Currency at the same time for goods and workers services) 2. The quality of the goods must be qualified, otherwise it is impossible to exchange the currency, at the same time, the quality of the currency must also be qualified.
Three. The evolution of the global currency in the past 300 years
Before1717 1717 England 1914 USA Gold and silver coins Gold standard fiat money Non-gold standard fiat money
The emphasis here is on gold standard fiat money, excerpted from << currency war >>5, author: Mr. Hongbing Song July 13, 1974, < > magazine published a shocking report on the price statistics of Britain's entire industrial revolution era. In the 250 years from 1664 to 1914, prices in Britain remained steady and slightly downward over the 250-year long period of gold standard operations. In today's world, there is no longer a second country that continues to keep the price data for such a long time. Sterling's purchasing power has been remarkably stable If the 1664 price index was set at 100, except during the Napoleonic Wars (1813), prices briefly rose to 180, and for most of the time the price index was below the 1664 standard. When the First World War broke out in 1914, the British price index was 91.In other words, in the gold standard system, the pound in 1914 is more purchasing power than the equivalent in 1664, 250 years ago. The United States, under the gold and silver standard, the situation is very similar. In 1787, the eighth chapter of the first chapter of the United States Constitution empowers Congress to issue and define the currency. Section Tenth expressly states that no State shall require any currency other than gold and silver to be used for the payment of debts, thereby clarifying that the American currency must be based on gold and silver. The 1792 Coinage Act established the dollar as the basic measure of U.S. currency, with a 10 dollar definition of 16 grams of solid gold. Silver is the cornerstone of the dollar's monetary system. Gold and silver parity is 15: 1.Any dilution of dollar purity, so devaluation of the dollar will face the death penalty. In 1800, the United States had a price index of about 102.2, and by 1913 prices fell to 80.7.In the era of great industrialization in the United States, the price volatility did not exceed 26%. In the gold standard era from 1879 to 1913, the price volatility was less than 17%.In the 113 years since the rapid development of production and the nation's full realization of industrialization, the average inflation rate in the United States is almost zero, with the annual average price fluctuating not exceeding 1.3%. Also under the gold standard, Europe's major countries in the transition from agricultural to industrial countries in the critical era of unprecedented economic development, their currencies also maintained a high degree of stability. The French franc, which maintained currency stability for 100 years from 1814 to 1914. The Netherlands guilder, which kept the currency stable for 98 years from 1816 to 1914. The Swiss franc, which maintained currency stability for 86 years from 1850 to 1936. The Belgian franc, which maintained its 82-year currency stability from 1832 to 1914. SEK, 58 years of currency stability from 1873 to 1931. German mark, from 1875 to 1914 maintained 39-year currency stability. The Italian lira maintained 31-year currency stability from 1883 to 1914.
Since 1914, the world ushered in the non-gold standard fiat money, through more than 100 years of practice, the trend of the non-gold standard fiat currency has lost the basic function of money. It is not conducive to the vast number of workers in favors of a small number of currency issuers, to more easily over printing, easier to manipulate the direction of development In most countries, the standard monetary value scale is not stable and can not be stored. It is an unqualified commodity.
In the absence of a gold standard, there will be no way to protect (the people's) savings from inflation, and there will be no secure wealth habitat.
  • Greenspan
Four? Four serious flaws in the global legal tender
  1. The non-gold standard legal tender does not have the labor value (purchasing power) of the Storage value function. Gold also lost this function under the centralized control of interest groups.
First of all, it is clear that a concept can not be influenced by external factors, the purchasing power value of the change represented at anytime and anywhere is called storage value. The currency as a general equivalent, born on behalf of a certain value. For example, $50, 100 Yuan, as to whether the value of the representative has moisture, how much moisture, according to the prevailing economic background. Legal currency can represent the value is not equal to the legal currency can store value. The value of the stockpile should be three years ago, or N years ago, the legal tender (purchasing power value), which was then able to buy a cow, was withdrawn from the circulation and stored. After three years, after n years, you need to retrieve the same purchasing power value, instead of just getting enough to buy half a cow, or a chicken's purchasing power value. Textbooks tell us:" Only gold and silver coins or bullion bars can play the role of currency storage, paper currency does not have the function of storage means. The currency in circulation is subject to too many factors that reduce its value (purchasing power). In the past 30 years, the incidence of inflation, national bankruptcy, financial turmoil, economic collapse, local war, terrorist attacks and exchange rate attacks have all proved this. What's worse is that the price of gold is artificially distorted and controlled:
Some records about gold price: 1999. May.7 Gold price: 520 USD, the Bank of England sold 415 tones in May, gold price goes to: 280 USD in May 2009 Feb Gold price: 984 USD, the IMF sold 403 tones in March gold price goes to: 870 USD in Apr. 2009. Nov Gold price: 1175 USD, IMF sold 200 tones Nov, gold price goes to: 1058 USD 2010 Feb. 2010. Jun Gold price: 1261USD, Bank for International Settlements used Gold swaps Jul, gold price goes to: 1157USD Jul. 2011. Sep.5 Gold price: 1920 USD, USA used 400 billion twists operation Sep 21, gold price goes to: 1700 USD Sep 23. 2011. Sep.23 Gold price: 1700 USD, COMEX Increase trading margin Sep, gold price goes to: 1540 USD Sep 26. ...
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AMA Brandan Eich - Creator of Javascript, Mozilla Firefox & Brave Software in Ark slack

boldninja @brendaneich hi Brendan welcome to Ark slack - Brendan is the creator of JavaScript, co-founder of Mozilla / Firefox & Brave Software and today we'll host AMA with him regarding his upcoming project http://basicattentiontoken.org/ BasicAttentionToken
moobox i think i'm gonna forget about bitbay and keep it
dr10 hi brendan
brendaneich hi
dr10 nice to have you here :smile:
boldninja hi Brendan - thanks for joining us today
brendaneich happy to be here @boldninja
tranzer hi @brendaneich , I have a question regarding BAT. Will you have limited number of tokens or will you have inflation? When do you plan to start ICO? (edited)
michaelthecryptoguy Hello Brendan. Nice to have you in the ark community slack channel
mward Hello
moobox the ironies of old age. you can afford the sports car you dreamed of as a kid, but your back hurts too much to sit in it.
dr10 Will Mozilla- and Chrome-Plugins be usuable for Brave browser? Will Brave Browser be able to sync bookmarks?
mike hi brendan
cannabanana is the BAT token just an ETH asset or will it be a new blockchain technology? if the first, why ETH instead of your own block chain? :smile: (edited)
brendaneich @dr10 two questions, first one first
jonathansampson @dr10 Chrome extensions are supported today, I wrote a short walkthrough on how we (I'm an engineer on Brave) test extensions before adopting for official support. https://blog.brave.com/loading-chrome-extensions-in-brave/ Happy to answer any questions you may have. (edited)
brendaneich 1. Brave on laptop/desktop uses chromium and we support chromium extensions, but curate them into our own S3 from the Chrome Web Store ah, there is @jonathansampson on to second q
jakethepanda @brendaneich How will Brave detect bots designed to give fake attention? (edited)
brendaneich 2. Brave's client-encrypted sync is in beta now, if you use iOS i can connect you with the devs to get a beta build. it works between laptop/desktop systems already, and is coming up in Android too @cannabanana BAT is an ERC20 token on Ethereum. we need smart contracts and benefit from multiple token launches proving the tech and approach no desire to do our own blockchain
mward The BAT wallet will be implemented in Brave browser as a plug-in?
brendaneich we are pragmatists, use bitcoin already in Brave for auto-microdonations
cannabanana will you only accept ethereum for the ICO or will you also be accepting bitcoin?
brendaneich @jakethepanda please see https://www.reddit.com/BATProject/comments/61kw7f/question/dfxkuus/ reddit Question • BATProject We have answers, you may not be surprised by them: 1. Rate-limiting. Bots can fake human ad viewing (see https://whiteops.com/methbot), but we'll... @mward no, deeper integration than an extension (plugin still is overloaded for old-style stuff like Flash) can have
brendaneich @cannabanana ETH only, as BAT is an ERC20 token -- we are not launching a new exchange or anything, so other currencies have to be exchanged to buy BAT
boldninja When do you plan to start your initial token offer, will there be any hard cap?
jakethepanda @brendaneich Is this right? Users opt into the BAT system and get paid for their attention. Advertisers pay for ads with BAT. Through a smart contract, BAT is unlocked as users give the ad attention. The unlocked BAT is split up between users, Brave, and publishers.
brendaneich @mward we have BitGo provided bitcoin wallet integration in Brave already, ofc the wallet is on the blockchain not in Brave but the deeper integration is for the private, "chartbeats in your browser" auto-microdonation analytics, and the anonize.org-based ZKP protocol over VPN to communicate your donations w/o loss of anonymity or fingerprinting via the list of your top sites
@jakethepanda that is the goal but doing it with real-time BAT flow is in the future, the "Apollo" (or Mars mission) space program phase; we're in "Mercury Redstone" rn, monkeys in buckets on parabolic paths
nt91 When is ico
brendaneich @boldninja @nt91 we haven't announced the date but will very (very) soon, just getting logistics and final audits done
@boldninja cap is $15M of ETH so we have to pin the ratio close to launch given recent vol.
dr10 How will you get Brave Browser to the masses? Any marketing campaign you like to sum up? Any bigger announcement or plan?
jakethepanda How is the split determined between users, publishers and Brave?
brendaneich @dr10 we are growing, mostly organically right now, under 1M MAU but we will (in best case of crowdsale) spend more to growth-hack, which is advertising + funnel analytics / retention analysis loop
tranzer @brendaneich don't know if you have been following tokencard ICO, but they had kind of a fuckup with their smart contract, also they didn't give their address of contract literally before it started. How will you go about this? Will smart contract, address be known beforehand?
brendaneich an important point: if we hit cap we will found a trade group for attention apps and get other apps on board to use BAT and help us get to scale faster with buy side of ad-tech system, also with bigger donor cohorts via membership in trade association
nt91 Once launched how quickly isit likely to join the exchange
brendaneich @tranzer we followed that closely, it was Not Good. we are using a super-simple contract based on FirstBlood, Golem, StandardToken
mward How will you make the crowdsale? Like Gnosis? (Dutch action) The BAT token wil have fixed price at the time of ico?
brendaneich @nt91 can't say, not our biz and we are building the "in game" economics first so exchanges can come any time
brendaneich @mward fixed ratio of BAT for ETH
fixcrypt @brendaneich will all the tx recorded on eth blockchain, or will you manage some sort of payment channels?
dr10 Do you plan to integrate decentralized VPN or Tor-Like stuff? Your browser is really fast, will these things slow it down? Or didnt plan any of this?
brendaneich @fixcrypt all on chain, no preselling, no funny stuff -- we believe in simplicity first, given all the experience in this space
mike would you be interested in using a different blockchain to eliminate all the overhead of paying such a huge network of computers on ethereum to each process every single contract on each computer? (edited)
cannabanana I hope you guys will reconsider accepting more than just eth for the ICO. I have not been able to invest in any of the past like 5 good ones. There's a whole segment of people who wont touch ETH.
tranzer @brendaneich ok I know this is not about BAT, but did you know that Ark is built in JavaScript :smile: ?
fixcrypt @brendaneich how many tx are we talking about? 1 each time there is a basic attention detected? (edited)
brendaneich @dr10 we are going to do Tor private tabs, see https://github.com/brave/browser-laptop/wiki/Brave-Tor-Support GitHub brave/browser-laptop browser-laptop - Brave browser for Desktop and Laptop computers running Windows, OSX, and Linux
we will make it possible to pick a region for exit node from Tor relay network -- so you can unlock region-locked videos, e.g.
yes, Tor slows things down and Tor private tabs turn on fingerprinting protection, turn off most JS, etc. -- that's a good thing
michaelthecryptoguy Very Nice!!
brendaneich @mike i'm a pragmatist and will use whatever blockchain is big enough, robust enough, has functionality we need (smart contracts, ZKP anonymity coming along, etc.). Zcash adding token support this fall, i hear. we don't multiply risk by jumping on bandwagons whose wheels are still off :wink:. we do not try 10 hard things at once -- space program from monkey in can to moon
@cannabanana we are launching an ERC20 token on Ethereum, you buy with ETH, we are not an exchange
the few launches whose contracts hardcoded a bitcoin address were launching exchange-like projects, so could take the risk
we are not doing that
separate concerns
@tranzer i heard :wink:
twitchard What do you think the adoption function for BAT looks like. Do you think there's a critical mass at which adoption will drastically speed up? Or do you think it is more gradual
brendaneich @fixcrypt no, in early phases of BAT program we cannot put each attention event on chain
obv. the chain is too costly, also: not anonymous! big tracking prob
fixcrypt agree
brendaneich we build in hybrid fashion
Brave already has anonize.org v2 ZKP integrated
requires centralized but open source accounting server
fixcrypt ah yes make sense
brendaneich we'd like someone else to run that (escrow, also could add exchange to fiat as publishers like being paid in fiat)
dr10 Can I visit websites, that block Users, that use addblock? Is there a way to work around this? Currently I use brave browser and some pages block me, because of using addblock. What is your solution to this or do you think these website will change their behaviour?
brendaneich if we can do server to client remote attestation (see https://www.npmjs.com/package/secureworker) we will npm secureworker Run JavaScript inside an Intel SGX enclave
jonathansampson @dr10 That's a bug; let us know which sites are detecting Brave as an ad-blocker, and we'll file Issues on GitHub. We're constantly making improvements in this space, and recalibrating as necessary :slightly_smiling_face:
brendaneich eventually it should all decentralize but that requires the blockchain (a blockchain; could be red-headed lovechild of Ethereum and Zcash lol) to do anonymity and microtransactions both very well
fixcrypt so payment are done on blockchain, but it basically validates on a daily basis a centralised payment channel between all stakeholders
mike like the chart on ad percentages of sites in the whitepaper. I've noticed for a long time the mainstream news sites are the worst to go to, a literal assault on the browser visiting them - have avoided going to them as a result, think you're on to something to mitigate this.
dr10 I visited a german boulevard magazine www.bild.de
brendaneich bild.de makes my eyes bleed
dr10 so normally this wouldnt be the case?
yeah its just an example lol
because I know they block addblock people
jonathansampson @dr10 I'll file an issue immediately!
brendaneich @dr10 we get around forbes, wired, latimes, many other anti-adblockers
michaelthecryptoguy Will these be done on a multi - channel?
brendaneich publishers who put up such user-hostile dialogs tend to lose alexa/comscore share
gotta catch up on the Qs
@fixcrypt next
tell me if i missed you
fixcrypt no pb
tranzer Haven't used Brave yet, might try after today, but is it same memory hungry as Chrome is?
twitchard :wave:
1nfinite concerning the ICO - will there only be one? meaning all 700m coins will be distributed through this initial $15m ICO (meaning $1 will net you about 46BAT)? sorry if I'm misunderstanding some of the info you've put out in asking this
dr10 What if I want to support Live-Streams (twitch) or youtube videos by watching their ad (which is not part of the brave system) Can I still turn off this mechanism?
brendaneich @fixcrypt yes, we buffer automicrodonations over 30 days of your uptime (varies by user; if you go on vacation those days don't count) and send Anonize ZKP votes (one per voting session, all over VPN) to our accounting server, along with the total bitcoin per 30 days you pledged. this goes into settlement wallet, the votes go into accounting db
we want to decentralize this as noted, just repeating in case anyone missed
fixcrypt decentralize this will be hard, maybe when segwit is enabled on bitcoin, but ETH, i have no idea (edited)
brendaneich @michaelthecryptoguy sorry, what did you mean by multi-channel?
jonathansampson @dr10 You can track the bild.de issue here: https://github.com/brave/browser-laptop/issues/6758 (Thank you again for reporting) (edited)
fixcrypt i think decentralizing everything is not always the best solution
brendaneich @tranzer we use less memory than chrome by virtue of ad and tracker blocking but we have some bugs to fix pre-1.0 (which i think will be in june) -- i use brave on all OSes, also use a bit of other browsers to keep up with joneses but i've cut back and tried to live in brave. on macOS i am still bugged by mem use (i'm a tab hoarder) and some lag bugs but we are on them -- will fix this month!
michaelthecryptoguy one blockchain ledger with multiple transactions, instead of being signed one at a time (edited)
brendaneich @1nfinite yes, selling 700M, floating 300M on side for user growth pool (100M), trade association, team, and future reserve
1nfinite thanks!
tranzer so 70% to ICO and 30% for team / user growth? Sounds reasonable (more than gnosis :joy: )
moobox this is great to talk to brave devs - pls to make websites look like this: http://i.imgur.com/00mQ8mc.png (173kB)
brendaneich @fixcrypt you could be right, centralization or let's say trusted third parties have existed since at least agriculture (10K years?) so we as pragmatists must consider some -- but we don't like "trust me" / "don't be evil", we prefer "trust Math" / "can't be evil"
michaelthecryptoguy then the last transaction is added to the blockchain
dafty what failsafes are planned to stop bots (eg, running selenium) from mocking a real human and gaining bat tokens? how do you know a user is actually a user?
jonathansampson @moobox We will support themes in a future release, as well as extensions to modify page presentation. If you have any favorites, please let us know :slightly_smiling_face:
moobox thank you sir
michaelthecryptoguy to improve the cost of using eth network
dr10 There are lot of small companies, Twitch/Youtube content creators which live by ads. These ads aren't yet part of the Brave-System. Will there be a smooth transition? Can I still turn off the brave-mechanism and watch these ordinairy ads, to support individuals or are they forced to switch over to Brave?
fixcrypt @brendaneich trust the code that can be hacked, or trust the people that can be evil… Make your choice. DAO vs Banks
brendaneich @michaelthecryptoguy yes, we must batch -- at first in-browser. auditable open source required, verified builds if OS/toolchain support them. there is a level of endpoint software trust in any attention ecosystem but part of the trade association idea is to standardize stuff, including ZKP and VPN rules for submitting the private ledger to the blockchain or equivalent, also auditing requirements to use BAT
cannabanana I trust bitcoin but I don't trust bitmain is not evil
brendaneich @moobox are you just asking for a dark theme? on our roadmap
moobox well this is a plugin for firefox that swaps out all website colors - nothing like it for chrome yet except an ugllly one
brendaneich @tranzer yeah, GNO didn't sell enough IMHO but i'm not on team so won't throw stones -- just sayin' as observer
mward Why only 15M$ max? Don't you think the ico will end very fast?
moobox i am just hoping maybe some person sees it and says "i want that too"
tranzer @brendaneich are you still active in JavaScript development? Could there be any kind of cooperation with Ark in the future (also asking main dev of Ark @fixcrypt ) ?
brendaneich @dafty did you see the reddit link above? besides real (costs money, boots on ground; we're evaluating Blockscore rn) KYC, we have rate limits in mind based on humans, and flow limits so a compromised real user or convincing fraudster can't get $MMs of BATs from friends and family and then pass KYC to send off to a mixer
cannabanana :trollbounce: not to mention two of us are in the bay area
brendaneich start with in-game economics, no exchanges
1nfinite any chance you'll incorporate certain requirements for investments above xx number of Eth for the crowdsale? to prevent 20 big players from buying up the whole thing?
axente How are you guys legally setup? Swiss foundation?
jonathansampson @moobox We have heard similar requests from other users, and are eagerly working towards a release that supports both theming of the browser, and styling of the content. Let us know if you have any other ideas/requests :slightly_smiling_face:
brendaneich add KYC on publishers getting donations (done in prototype form in Brave using bitcoin rn)
add KYC for users wanting to withdraw -- this also means rate/flow controls
fixcrypt @tranzer well the only point would be to use ark as the payment network, instead of ETH, i don’t see any other interaction. Also maybe make brave agnostic enough so people can choose their network payment
brendaneich but for many users the opt-in zero-knowledge ad revenue is not enough to withdraw and they'll donate it
you can net-zero your monthly spend: make ad rev on non-top-20 sites, donate to top 20
I should add we want to start with user-private ad channels, like WeChat
we won't put ads on publishers's slots without their consent and partnership
some will come fast but bigs will be slow
so we're looking for user private ads: in separate tab, wechat-like bot, fullscreen channel, etc.
these can pay most rev share to user
still rate limited, no couch potato as a service lol
dr10 what about the twitch/youtube question? How could this work out?
brendaneich @dr10 we've always had a design that denotes payee with URL including path to youtube/twitch account, not just domain name
but we start with domain name for beta/MVP
will get team on twitch/youtube in coming months, it's hot topic
everyone wants it, we're just busy (24 people now)
crowdsale will help
can hire more to parallelize a bit
dr10 so you are working on a solution to pay off individuals within the brave-system, right?
@ yt / twitch
brendaneich @mward we debated cap on basicattentiontoken.slack.com and consensus was to keep at $15M -- but a few still suggest raising or no cap, much concern about fast sell-out and whales buying too much
mward yes, that is my concern.
look at gnosis distribution..
brendaneich @tranzer yes, i'm on Ecma TC39 and still active / consulted
mward you need a lot of small investors, not whales
dr10 When you implement Tor-like stuff. Can I also Download stuff via ToVpn? just using the Tor-Tab to download
brendaneich @1nfinite we aren't going to change the contracts, in third audit currently. we can't really limit whales who have tools to buy from lots of addresses
@axente we are not swiss but looking at tax optimization structures pre-launch; brave is delaware (US) c corp; trade group would be 501c6, need to pass IRS muster so that is many months after launch
axente Oke thanks
1nfinite got it, thanks. So will there be a cap for how much can be donated per address?
brendaneich @fixcrypt code is hacked, security never done; no silver bullets. but people are easier to hack and hack themselves lol
dr10 Is the brave browser running in a sandbox like chrome?
dafty how are inappropriate ads handled on the network, is there some form of reputation system for advertisers?
brendaneich @mward GNO sold too little, cetaceans eat too much agreed. GNT sold more and we can't find on-chain huge buys
@dr10 use Tor private tab, yeah
jonathansampson @dr10 That is correct.
brendaneich btw does everyone know Brave supports magnet: and .torrent now via WebTorrent integration?
@dr10 yes, we use chromium with the same sandbox -- had to fork electron hard (twice) to do this, btw. Slack uses unsandboxed chromium renderer processes :disappointed:
tranzer I think I'm sold on brave today will definately try it out
jonathansampson @tranzer Awesome. Let us know if you have any feedback!
brendaneich @dafty we haven't taken any ads at all yet so start from clean slate. no exchanges, ads bearing malware get thru, also https://whiteops.com/methbot fraud on sell side steals revenue by putting real ads into fake slots clicked by fake users whiteops.com Methbot | White Ops Digital Advertising Security. Enterprise Security Solutions. Bots are bad for business; we're bad for bots. (4kB)
our plan is to go direct to agencies who get ads from brands
our ads are opt in
no surprises for our users who want and expect baseline Brave to block
djselery @brendaneich what are your feelings about IPFS?
dr10 Will the Paying/receiving of tokens in the brave system be easy to understand for non-tech people? Is there some kind of tutorial or easy buttons or something like that? This is a total new environment for people. You have any plans for "educating" people or making it easy to use. Like a browser-integrated Balance? Easy overviews?
brendaneich if you opt in, you can start with light touch but to get BAT out you must KYC
@dr10 have you used Brave Payments (beta) yet? the support is built in
usable UX
tranzer will you need to do KYC also if you transfer to Brave and after that decide to put it out on exchange?
brendaneich we are moving (with new name, not "Payments") to second beta with Stripe as partner for users to fund automicrodonation wallet without seeing bitcoin
dr10 I have it installed and browse with it, but it is not taking me by the hand. I wouldnt know whats going it. I will look deeper into it.
brendaneich @djselery juan DMed me and we chatted about their JS implementation following WebTorrent into Brave -- it could happen. couldn't take the Go impl :wink:
@tranzer if you buy BATs as investor, no KYC -- just send ETH to token contract once launched, get BAT back
dr10 Maybe implementing something like a tutorial when starting brave browser would be nice. I am thinking of people who dont know any of this stuff and are not interested into researching it a whole lot
alexius89 @brendaneich are there partnerships with any exchanges (Bittrex, Bitshares etc.) planned or already confirmed after the crowdfund has ended?
geezee @brendaneich you should accept ARK :smile: :smile:
brendaneich @tranzer if you are a user of Brave after we launch BAT and have it integrated, and want to opt into ads, no KYC at first but the funds (to which you will have multisig custody, similar to bitcoin setup with BitGo wallet today in Brave for donations) flow in API-keyed and browser-automated fashion toward the accounting server that settles donations behind the anonize barrier
@tranzer if you want to send BATs from your wallet to other destinations then KYC needed
@dr10 go to Preferences / Payments; the Coinbase buy widget integration is US-only and a bit much for average users, wherefore our Stripe partnership
if you have BTC already, you can just fund your wallet and start
we have pinning (Patreon in the browser) in 0.15.2 now
so you can support sites with x% of your monthly budget whether you browse there or not
dr10 Will I earn more then I pay, when I chose to accept to watch these ads?
brendaneich @dr10 you don't have to pay at all, you can just earn
both donations (currently and in future) and ads (still to come, after BAT launch) are opt-in and separate
dr10 so basically what you say... the average dude can earn money just by browsing? It will be of couse small amounts, but better then nothing
fixcrypt @brendaneich on a business model side, is Brave team earning directly from this (ie part of the revenue redirected to the team for further development)?
tranzer Will bat have finitive coins and nothing added after few years or is there some subsection where you can increase token numbers via smart contract in the future ?
brendaneich @fixcrypt we are selling 70% and 30% floats on side. 10% is user growth pool. remaining 20% is reserves for team, bat.org (shorthand for basicattentiontoken.org; also have attentiontoken.org, attentioneconomics.org) and poss. user growth reserve
dr10 what if nobody choses to donate to pay money to the ad-publishers/BAT. doesnt the concept break down? I mean many people just want to earn. They watch these ads and get money.
brendaneich @fixcrypt biz model for Brave is not fundraising, though -- that's mostly burned down as non-recurring engineering, marketing (ads and growth hacking), etc.
biz model is small percentage (currently 5%) of automicrodonation gross, and larger (maybe 15%) off gross ad spend
these will be public numbers, we want transparency
if we do user-private ads, 85% of rev could go to user
part of Brave's brand is a set of promises: your data only on your devices in clear; we don't track, or store cleartext; rev share to you for opt-in ads at least as our share.
fixcrypt @brendaneich i see some maintenance with regular upgrades from chrome and advertisers relationship, so it needs a regular funding from transations i agree.
brendaneich @dr10 if everyone free-rides then system collapses; note this is risk today on Web, without Brave (which is small-share browser)
on Web today you can use a strong ad blocker like Brave, or Chrome+uBO+Disconnect.me
fixcrypt also will the revenue from donations will be contractual on the blockchain?
cannabanana do you have a contingency plan in case of critical ETH failure in the future?
brendaneich @tranzer contract is super-simple, we are making 1e9 BATs, no plans for more. can subdivide, expect appreciation but then use mostly as medium of exchange and unit of account, not store of value. don't want everyone hoarding. as with real world economies if everyone saved the system would collapse
michaelthecryptoguy for example the double spend issue like bitcoin had
dr10 What are your arguments for people donating for ads/keeping the money circulated. Why shouldn't they just cash-out their money?
Can you tell me an example of how much I would earn by browsing an hour? What is it depending on? Is there a good example to tell to people?
tranzer How are you going to counter exchange BAT price fluctuations? We all know tokens are highly volatile can go up 200% in a day or fall 50% in a day. How will you determine how much is someone paid ? Will you use USD value at time of contract with publisher / advertiser?
cannabanana @brendaneich wouldn't it be better to have a better distribution of BAT tokens during the ICO? currently in our environment with ICOs which have been selling out instantly is that there are like 10 whale ETH investors who get all the coins and hoard leaving out like 99.5% of the people who would have invested. (edited)
dr10 Dont know if I missed it. How much BAT will I get for 1 ETH?
fixcrypt @tranzer agree volatility is something advertisers don’t like (edited)
brendaneich @fixcrypt good q about transactional on blockchain, we do it all on bitcoin blockchain currently. we want transparency
have i mentioned ad tech is full of non-transparency, price gouging, etc.?
see http://digiday.com/marketing/proverbial-black-box-open-exchange-auctions-transparency-problem/ Digiday ‘A proverbial black box’: Open-exchange auctions have a transparency problem - Digiday Demand-side platforms are unclear about how supply-side platforms charge their publisher partners, and they can't tell if a bid price is inflated. (199kB) Yesterday at 6:00 AM
@dr10 we haven't pinned the ratio and won't till close to launch date in view of ETH volatility
we are raising $15M equiv
dr10 tranzers question is good
like to know that too
brendaneich @cannabanana global war, giant meteor impact, etc. -- "exiguous circumstances" -- leave us with no good alternative, i mean this in deep civilizational sense. BAT launch will be least of our concerns. Short of these, the risk to Ethereum is low. could have primal flaw in design exposed. would have to rebase on another blockchain -- would be hard, tons of risk
catching up...
cannabanana do you guys even believe in blockchain?
tranzer Rebase to Ark :trollbounce:
cannabanana ok, nm.
brendaneich @tranzer can't volatility hedge yet (gamma hedge) as far as i know -- anyone know diff?
@cannabanana i believe in blockchain -- as with standards, the great thing about blockchains is there are so many :stuck_out_tongue:
@cannabanana we see no whalesign in GNT; if you mean GNO, see above. they sold too little
cannabanana well I also believe but not in ETH so you are basically only allowing ETH believers to partake in your project
michaelthecryptoguy Wow!! You are doing great @ brendaneich :goodjob: In the dedication and effort department! ::ghostfaceuk_node: (edited)
mward @cannabanana you can simply exchange btc to eth for ico. After ico ends and you have tokens, sell them for profit :trollbounce:
cannabanana and many projects recently "sold out" within minutes by 2m equivalent single transactions
@mward I wont ever buy any eth ever
brendaneich @cannabanana we are not religious about it, as noted above: tokens on Ethereum are proven tech (still young, mistakes and latent bugs, risk for sure but less than alternative token/smart-contract platforms). we are using Ethereum for smart contract based tokens and that's it
cannabanana that's not the point
you still must believe in it if you are only accepting eth
brendaneich @cannabanana did you actually check "many projects" to prove whalesign? we looked at some and aside from GNO couldn't find it
cannabanana :slightly_smiling_face: g/l
brendaneich @cannabanana we believe stuff, yes; have to believe to get up in morning, do anything
cannabanana i've been following altcoins since 2013
yes, i've seen them sell out in minutes
brendaneich but we are not Ethereum true believers in some zealot sense
cannabanana then why not accept bitcoin for the ICO
because of hte risk you said.
brendaneich i will say ETH price rise is scary; but EEA (JP Morgan -- federal reserve founder!) backing Ethereum is huge
mike i had a very bad experience with HEAT using Ethereum, still have to pursue it to track it down - time consuming so have put it off. Used an online wallet, jaxx, i think, since installing and waiting days for blockchain was a lot more than i wanted to deal with. Maybe there are better alternatives now.
cannabanana sorry man, didnt mean to hijack your ama
brendaneich @cannabanana accept bitcoin how?
hardcode a bitcoin address in the token contract?
Zooko's XCAT scheme?
it's cool but no thanks
K.I.S.S. rules
we will not multiply risk (odds ratios) of independent events
that's a good way to die
cannabanana wow you are a jerkoff man
I just wanted to invest in your project
but wont touch eth
brendaneich i was at a startup before Netscape (MicroUnity), talked to Jim Clark when I got to Netscape. said "we were doing ten hard things at once that all had to work for success" and Clark said "odds were 1e-10!"
cannabanana good god, good for you man
1nfinite way to be respectful @cannabanana - just because of some feud you have with ETH, too
brendaneich @cannabanana i'm not the one calling names here
techbytes let's not digress... stay on topic please
brendaneich i do like XCAT, check it out. cross chain atomic transactions
1nfinite thanks for the transparency here and taking the time to answer our questions @brendaneich
brendaneich np
i think i'm over time
did i miss anyone's q?
dr10 dr10 What are your arguments for people donating for ads/keeping the money circulated. Why shouldn't they just cash-out their money?
Can you tell me an example of how much I would earn by browsing an hour? What is it depending on? Is there a good example to tell to people?
brendaneich @dr10 thanks
dr10 np :smile:
tranzer Thanks brendan for answering all of my questions - good luck with the project I'll be sure to participate
brendaneich if people see ads and cash out, the ad business is working and perhaps it dominates
moobox thank you for answering my questions also
brendaneich today's web relies mostly on ads, few paywalls and they convert poorly
i have a feeling with automatic, anonymous microdonations and payments we will see more of that and less reliance on ads
but cannot count ads out, for sure
mike any chance of eliminating the KYC so people can just withdraw their BAT and trade it?
brendaneich @dr10 comScore had a figure of 100 page views per user per day
devin Bitcoin is to slow
mike i don't see where kyc adds any value for the users.
tranzer @mike you won't need KYC if you are just going to trade as far as I got this (edited)
brendaneich assume we partner on one ad per page (just for easy math; i don't like this model and think user-private ad channel with one ad per day might be much better)
100 ad impressions per day, 3000/month, if $3CPM that is $9/month
twitchard Is there some way/what do you think would be the best way for developers interested in advancing your mission to contribute?
brendaneich if we put the ads in user private channel and share 85% to user, that is $7.65/month to user
$3CPM is low figure
dr10 CPM means?
mike like the idea very much over all.
noslawxtrafries cost per impression I believe
brendaneich it's an ad cost model: Cost Per Mille (Mille from Latin for 1000 impressions)
video ads pay more; not just CPM but CPX for X = watch a video by quartiles; watch to end; click on download promotion after end (usually game ad)
mike so KYC is just to withdraw to fiat, but to withdraw to an exchange or another wallet is unrestricted?
brendaneich @devin yes, bitcoin too slow; no privacy either (edited)
devin Screw bitcoin
I want a project that accepts both
brendaneich @mike KYC is required or fraud kills the system faster than regulators (who will kill it too) (edited)
@devin there are projects doing this but they are "upstream" of ours
dr10 What are your 3 major arguments for mass adoption of Brave Browser. - Some Slogan you would give to magazines, etc.
brendaneich Fast (3-7x, see next link), Private, and you get paid for your attention
but remember we want the 501c6 trade association if we sell out. BAT is for multiple apps
mike have you looked at Blockstack for ID as an alternative to KYC?
brendaneich more than Brave
@mike yes (I know founders and saw them recently); that doesn't help
dr10 yeah but Brave will be the flagship of BAT token, right? Or any other big vision planned? (edited)
brendaneich @dr10 Brave will be first, yes
eventually everything here should be a standard
nothing's proprietary
twitchard Could BAT be implemented as a plugin/extension to other browsers? (Would it be more practical to fork?) (edited)
dr10 good question
mike or is KYC just needed for a threshold to withdraw above. it does seem there would be a pratical limit of how much organic ad traffic a user would be exposed to.
brendaneich blockchain, ZKP, even functional specs for KYC, definitely payments -- all should be standards used by lots of apps and services and people
@mike please find "rate" and "flow" above
ryano Dpos is probably the best consensus approach for things like this
devin @brendaneich thanks
brendaneich @twitchard BAT in extension is unclear as extensions have limited APIs, and often must be loaded from a store that has rules
kik got thrown out of iOS app store for doing its own payments some years back
CWS kicked out Ad Nauseum
mike i can see where someting is needed to mitigate clickfarms in low wage regions.
brendaneich i'm half hour overtime so have to go soon
@mike yes, and sybil attacks to route funds to a mule
stuff like that
ryano Thanks for your time Brendan
twitchard Thank you
brendaneich np, it was fun (except for the jerkoff thing :-/)
tranzer Thanks good luck
dr10 thank you very much
ryano Let me guess canna ?
cannabanana lol
man I asked a legit question and got shit on
so fuck it
jakethepanda Hi everyone. As Brendan mentioned, he will be wrapping up the AMA. @brendaneich Thank you for your time.
1nfinite thanks @brendaneich , learned a lot just from the terminology you've been using. Will spend time looking into all this, but your project sounds great
ryano Still dude, it's not good if you are predictably the one causing trouble
brendaneich @dr10 here's the "Fast" money shot
cannabanana well some people can't all be agreeable
brendaneich uploaded this image: Pasted image at 2017-05-09, 10:33 AM Add Comment
ryano You are the only one where this is an ongoing issue
It's bad for our community
cannabanana no, it's not. it's good because I give a different perspective on things. I'm not like you and I don't agree.
you think the success of ark has been on the backs of all the "good" ones?
brendaneich @cannabanana us taking ETH and me giving the reasons why we won't multiply risk is not me shitting on you -- we will have to just miss out on you this time. i wish we could take multiple currencies but it's an exchange problem at this point. maybe XCATs help in future
cannabanana I asked a legit question about what if it fails. what about hte investors?
is that not a legit question?
1nfinite WHAT ABOUT CONSUMERS????
cannabanana if you want me to put money in, I want to put in something I believe in
not something I dont
mike yes, if they want to stick with ETH, it's their call. Obviously plenty of ICOs have been successful with it, so it will continue in the future.
cannabanana consumers too, it's the same thing if it fails then the system is gone then the peopel who bought the bat to use are all out too.
brendaneich @cannabanana that's (https://arkecosystem.slack.com/archives/C41QFMCKH/p1494351381880292) fair and it means in a market, sometimes you don't make a deal -- you hold out for better product later (edited)
calling names and getting mad because someone won't do what you demand -- not fair. my 2 cents anyway
ryano You can't be calling guests jerk offs and trolls every time they don't tell you what you want. This is an ongoing issue with you. Nobody else here is lashing out at people except you and there are nearly 2000 people here.
jamiec79 oh lordy...
jamie exits the room quietly
cannabanana you know what nm
techbytes @brendaneich appreciate you stopping by today. Will put AMA on Reddit for others to find out more about your project.
brendaneich @techbytes thanks for having me
ryano Thanks Brendan
nt91 Brendan thank you for coming
ominous.shark Yeah, thanks for the AMA! @brendaneich ARK community appreciates it!
mike thanks for taking the time to talk with us about BAT, good luck with it.
michaelthecryptoguy :goodjob: Brendan and :goodluck: with the BAT ICO (edited)
boldninja Thanks @brendaneich - good luck with BAT
brendaneich thanks again
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[Table] IAmA: I am Jeffrey Sachs, Professor and Director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. I’ll be teaching a free online class on sustainable development starting this month. Ask me anything!

Verified? (This bot cannot verify AMAs just yet)
Date: 2014-01-15
Link to submission (Has self-text)
Questions Answers
Professor Sachs thank you so much for doing this AMA. I've always argued that if agricultural subsidies were cut around the world it would be more effective in lifting people from poverty than all aid combined. It seems that lately developing countries have also gotten into the ag subsidy trap. Is it possible we've reached a point where reducing global ag subsidies might hurt the poor more than it helps them? There is a lot of use of open source, and a lot more on its way. Free apps. IT-based service delivery. Some really great stuff. I think the classrooms will also be transformed through online curricula.
Hello Dr. Sachs, I was wondering if you could respond briefly to a few questions I have had for awhile. I was in the military and deployed overseas when I read the Shock Doctrine and could verify everything that she claimed when I was in the Middle East. I have since been discharged and I pursued an Economics degree during which I took an Economic Development course. In the course, we reviewed your new and refined writings/theories and I had also wished to ask you these questions: 1) What is your retort to what Naomi Klein so succinctly documented about Free Market reforms and the subsequent repression to maintain them the world over. “The idea is to get the guys heart beating again. And it’s a bloody mess. But you don’t have any choice.” Do you still hold to this rational? 2) In your revamped understanding, you state that it is immoral to experiment because you would be withholding funds from a given population, but how do you reconcile this as an academic who is trying to solve poverty without the faintest idea of what works because of a lack of data? Secondly, do you not see that the big push is a logical fallacy if the only reason as to why it could fail is from there not being enough? Thanks for asking. I don't think that Naomi Klein understood my own work and ideas (which by the way are all on the record). She lumped me, for some reason, with extreme free-market economists, which I am obviously not. I've been concerned with social justice from the very start of my work, and therefore argued for debt cancellation and social spending in Bolivia, for example. She overlooked all of those complexities, to make her story line go smoother. I certainly agree with much of what she wrote in general, but she did not depict my own ideas and approaches accurately.
Do you believe that, if our basic instinct as humans is to adapt and survive, then the most logical course of action to tackle the 'big issues' we face is to harness the power of greed within an acquisitive framework of business? I.e. the Triple Bottom Line approach, using models to create multiple value effects yet based on the inherent need to further one's position to create security and success. In short, can or must greed be good? I think that starting with "human nature" is right (as did Aristotle, by the way). But we are more than greed. We are a mix of greed, compassion, honesty, cheating, and much more. Humanity in all its complexity. Therefore, greed (markets) are one motivator, but so too is morality a crucial key to success.
I read 'The End of Poverty' and I have to say, I am a huge fan of that book. I often cite your work to support ideas like that sweat-shops aren't necessarily the evil they're portrayed to be. Since the book, how much, in you eyes, has changed in the world? Do you feel like leaders sat up and took notice? Also, from your perspective, what is going well or not so well with the US economy? The most important thing that's happened since 2005 is that the idea of ending extreme poverty has actually begun to take hold. People see the success of China in ending poverty, the start of real poverty reduction in Africa, and the power of the new ICT technologies. Because of this optimism, the World Bank Development Committee voted in April to take on the goal of ending extreme poverty globally by 2030. So the idea is there, step by step.
ending extreme poverty globally by 2030. So the idea is there, step by step. O.o rly? sounds like a dream to me. I live in Uruguay and with the corrupt government we have i doubt we could make such a thing. I'm seriously thinking in move to another country. I thought that Uruguay was doing better in governance. You don't think so?
Hi Professor Sachs- I just wanted to say that I've read some of your work and I really admire it. I was wondering how you would respond to some of William Easterly's arguments, such as that made in "Democracy and Good Government", where he claims that there is an inherent contradiction in giving money to sitting governments (which is in and of itself a political act) and expecting them to reform. Also, it seems in a lot of your work that you believe that governments will work in the interest of their people, rather than for themselves. What is it that has drawn you to that conclusion so firmly? What do you believe will happen to the villages of the Millennium Village projects once the project term ends? To what extent are measures being made to equip government officials with the skills they may need to govern? I believe that aid can be designed in ways that promote accountability and transparency. This is how the Global Fund has worked most of the time. It's been a good and successful model. Yes, we should promote a high degree of transparency. Remember that much of the corruption starts from the side of the rich countries and their companies.
Hello from Western Australia. Thanks for offering this online course! Practical questions: (hope I did not just overlook pertinent info on main page). a) a course book is mentioned - what book is that? Is it referring to the 'free, online text'? b) Will the times of the various video hang-outs be at various times of the day - to cater to the from around the world crowd? c) Will the weekly video links remain active for the rest of the course, once they are up? Thanks. All the details will be available once the course Link to www.coursera.org goes live on January 21. a) Yes, the course book will be a free, online text on sustainable development to accompany the class b) Exactly – the times of the video hangouts will vary in order to accommodate as many time zones as possible, and the specific times will be posted ahead of time. They will be conducted in English, Spanish, French, Hindi, and Chinese. c) Yes, the links will remain active for the rest of the course once they are posted. Please do tune in to the class, more information will be up once it is live next Tuesday!
If automation moves to the point where sweat shops are no longer needed for the labor intensive goods produced in developing countries, do the people of developing countries have a real alternative to becoming serfs? The question of how automation, robotics will affect development is crucial and UNSOLVED. I will discuss it in class. There is as yet too little thinking about this.
Dr Sachs, there's a growing movement in international development to study impact empirically, and a good amount of the evidence coming back so far has shown ineffectiveness in many aid projects. Your book posits that this is because we are not investing enough in the projects we have, while other theorists (like Easterly) would rather invest in different projects. Do you think there is a middle road in this discussion for sustainable development? And how far do you think empirical studies can be trusted when so much of developmental success is context-specific? We need to be smart in our aid policies, using knowledge, experience, and EXPERTISE outside of economics (such as in public health). The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB, and Malaria, and GAVI are examples of aid success. We should measure and evaluate programs, but use methods that are appropriate to the circumstances. There is too much of a one-size-fits-all strategy to evaluation these days (too much on randomized trials, excluding other means of evaluation).
I saw you in "Commanding Heights" and learned that you advised several countries face their staggering economies. Quite amazing! Thanks for doing this AMA! Do you see need for the US and EU to face the trouble their currencies are in, especially after measures taken since 2007/8? Have you had time to dive into bitcoin and what are your thoughts? You know, I've worked on currencies for 30 years but not yet on Bitcoin, but many (many!!!) people have been asking me about Bitcoin recently, so I need to start my own education on it. Sorry to be a laggard!
My name is Nikolas Tsaousis. I'm from Cyprus Professor ill follow your course on line and i have questions 1.How many times in the week the lectures it will take place and when? 2.Can we have access to the videos at any time because we are +7h EST time? 3.The interactions can happen verbally or only by text in the time of the lectures? 4.Who we are going to add in Hangout TAs to place our questions? 5.All the information's they will send to us by mail so we have the correct sides? Personal quest: On 20 of January I'm flying back to my country from USA and still up 21st GTM time 19:00 i reach Cyprus how I will be able to follow lecture 1? Glad to hear you’ll be following! All the logistical information regarding the posting schedules, etc, will be up on the coursera course page (Link to www.coursera.org once the course goes live next Tuesday January 21. The videos will be posted weekly, every Tuesday. Once the lecture videos are online they will stay up for the duration of the course, so you can watch whenever you’d like. There will be weekly google hangout videos with myself and the course staff, where you can submit any questions; the details of how to join will be on the website. Even if you can’t join at the time, you can go back to watch the videos later. There will also be discussion boards, and I’m looking forward to answering more of your questions and having interesting discussions there! The information will all be available on the coursera website, and you will also receive email updates if you’re registered.
I'm fascinated by the new environmental technologies like billboards pulling drinking water from the air, or Mexico City's smog eating paint. What technology do you look at as having great potential? Probably the single most important breakthrough in recent years has been the dramatic decline in price of photovoltaics, which have fallen by a factor of 100X since 1977. 1 Watt of PV now costs less than $1 dollar. This will make possible an enormous upscaling of solar power in many parts of the world.
How do you think microfinance (and microcredit in particular) can help alleviate poverty? Is that of any help to the poorest people, or only tho those slightly above that level? Microfinance is a proven useful tool, but not a single magic solution. it can help households to start small business and to smooth income fluctuations. Some people thought it was a single panacea, but alas, it's not powerful enough for that.
What's your take on the Affordable Care Act? How do you think it compares to a single payer approach, as seen in Canada and the UK? Give me single-payer ANY DAY!!! It's the lobbies that block it.
Why are you not devaluing education through free courses? As an economist, I would think you'd be very wary of removing price signals from any product, especially one with so much investment as a college-level course. I am thrilled that anybody can join in my lectures through an online experience. The marginal cost of that is essentially zero, so I'm happy to be supplying that "service" to anybody that's interested.
Public Health advancements stand out among the successes of the Millennium Development Goals. Does the international community’s recent failure to raise the bare minimum $5 billion for the Global Fund indicate that global health will not factor prominently in the Sustainable Development Goals? The Global Fund is still trying to close the $5 billion. I'll be speaking with several governments over the next few weeks as well to help close the deal. The name of the game is PERSISTENCE. It takes time to convince governments!!!
Dear Prof Sachs, thank you for doing this AMA. If I understand correctly you once stood in favour of big-package approach to development, rather than very targeted randomized trial, which due to their narrower focus, have the benefit of being easier to evaluate (they can be randomized). Where would you stand today on this debate? What do you think of the Banerjee-Duflo approach to development? I think we have many ways to knowledge, and should limit ourselves to things that fit randomized trials. That would be an arbitrary and unnecessary barrier to tacking great challenges. That's the point I've been making, e.g. regarding public health. I'm happy to say that the evidence on public health is supporting the ambitious agenda. There is a place for RCTs (randomized controlled trials) but only one place among many methods.
As many borders in Africa were established in Europe in the 19th century, do you think that an AU/UN guided attempt to re-draw borders peacefully (and democratically) would increase the overall cohesive structure of most nations on the continent? The borders are often very arbitrary, carving Africa up into 54 countries on the continent itself, plus islands. The carving has left 14 landlocked countries (I believe that's the number), plus incredibly arbitrary divisions of ethnic groups, spread across countries. Yet solving this by redrawn borders is probably not feasible. More feasible is to increase economic and social integration in Africa, so that borders matter much less. Also, more investment in good transport infrastructure!!!
Which country teaches sustainable development in schools? Is this an effective way to know the importance of this topics for the world? How can we do it? When the world adopts Sustainable Development Goals in 2015, we should all work to ensure that SD and the SDGs are taught in all schools as part of the curriculum. This will be an important step in global problem solving!
Hi Jeffrey, I had the pleasure of taking a class from Lisa Cook at MSU, and we actually studied a paper you two wrote together. My question is how would you recommend oil rich countries in Africa harvest their resources without degrading their environment? Do you think that's even a likely achievement? Oil development can be done effectively, with the money used for true development. It requires far more transparency of financial flows, far more policing of environmental abuses, and far more long-term policy planning. I am working with several governments to try to stop the resource curse and turn it into a resource blessing.
What will happen to the Millennium Villages after the MDG's expire? Will the program be sustained at its current level or are there any plans for expansion? The MVs will be evaluated at the end of 2015, and we will make course corrections and improvements as needed in several national programs underway to scale up the MV model. So the basic notion of using community-based rural development will continue past 2015, for sure. It's working in many powerful ways, but will have even clearer evidence in 2015 on many important detailed issues.
Hi Professor Sachs, believe it or not I'm writing this from Nairobi! I'm a Columbia College senior, and I've been spending the past week here at the CGC getting to see some of the great work that's being done with the MVPs. Great to hear from you. (I'm in Moscow now, myself). So good that you are visiting the CGC.
My question is what your goals are for this course, and what you think students stand to gain from taking it? The course will offer an intro to the marvelous field of SD. And as I'll explain, I believe that Sustainable Development will be a central theme of our age, and especially for your generation. A world of 8-9 billion people will need to learn how to live productively and peacefully together, and at peace with the planet itself. That will be the subject of the course.
What would you consider to be basic steps, it even crucial steps, that those of us living in the industrialized work should pursue to lessen our drain on global resources? We need to focus on ending the environmental damage were causing. This means, for example, converting our energy system from fossil-fuel dependence (oil, coal, and gas) to low-carbon sources, such as hydro, solar, wind, and in my view, some nuclear power (though that one, of course, is the most controversial). It also means changing agricultural patterns that deplete soils and groundwater.
Hi Professor, thanks for doing this. What role would you say access to family planning has on alleviating poverty at the aggregate level? Also its impact on sustainable development? Full disclosure: I am looking into doing an MSc dissertation on this topic over the summer. Family planning is very important. Development success has almost always depended (in part) on a voluntary reduction of high fertility rates. When fertility is reduced, then each child is able to get a better start in life. Economists call this the "quality-quantity" tradeoff in number of children in a poor household. Many countries in Africa still have fertility rates even above 5 children in poor households, and the poor parents are unable to provide adequate nutrition, healthcare, and education for such a large number of children.
What would you consider to be the strategies to end poverty while increasing sustainable development in third world countries? I think that the key to ending poverty and increasing sustainable development is "investment-led growth," with investments in people (health, nutrition, education, training), plus investments in infrastructure (such as low-carbon energy), plus investments in "smart" systems using information technologies.
Does the Millenium Development do any work within the United States to alleviate the poverty that goes unrecognized or undereported? The Earth Institute, which I am very honored to direct at Columbia University, is beginning several projects right here in NYC. Some of them involve, for example, using a community-health-worker model to reach underserved populations. Also, scaling up public health screening in NYC schools.
There's been a push over the past few years to "buy American" (wares made in America). To me, this goes against Globalization (a trend that would ultimately make the world a the manufacturers and drive down prices). Whats your stance on the protectionist attitude and buying only made in America wares? This kind of protectionism is especially damaging, and is seen by poor countries are a kind of "cheating." How are they supposed to develop if the rich-country markets are closed to them?!
Water is often a scarce commidity in very poor areas. Do you see any possibilities of treating salt water to make it potable and/or so that it can be used for irrigation? Also, how do you see water scarcity leading to violence in areas with little or no rain? There are many technologies to recycle water, or desalinate, or to use mildly saline water in some cases. Yet the local specific are crucial. Water scarcity can absolutely lead to poverty, famine, and conflict. The evidence is very clear on that.
I know you taught Dambisa Moyo at some point. What's your take on her argument "DEAD AID" regarding Africa? Unlike Dambisa Moyo, I believe that aid is needed and can be organized effectively and respectfully. I am very happy with the successful scale up of aid for public health in the past decade. It has saved millions of lives and helped to promote economic development.
What is the most extreme, ridiculous proposal you've ever seen to fix climate change that is just crazy enough to work? It sometimes seems that the most "ridiculous" idea is that the governments actually agree to do something, and do IT. 21 years later, that's not yet happened. The goal now is for a comprehensive agreement in Paris at the 21st meeting of the signatories of the climate change agreement (COP21, so called), to take place in December 2015. Working now towards success of that.
What do you recommend to switch to a career in sustainable dev? Located in NYC, already in a masters program, but having trouble being useful. Thx! The great thing about SD is that many fields can contribute -- business, law, public health, social worker, nursing, medicine, etc. So if you've got some good Masters skills, that's a great start to searching out some opps in business, government, or NGOs.
Prof. Sachs, what do you think is the best way to engage companies so that they contribute to the sustainable development of the countries where they work? Each company should have a sustainability division and a code of good conduct. Companies should not create damage to the communities where they operate, or to the planet, EVEN if such behavior is "legal." Companies have responsibilities not only to shareholders but to stakeholders (communities, workers, suppliers, customers, and the planet!)
Are you pesimistic about the european future because of the aging population and its impact in the economy and sustainability, or not? Ricardo from Spain. I'm optimistic about Europe (and love European culture, cities, and heritage). I'm also not against aging. :-) I believe that Europe still has the best model of social democracy, combining high productivity with social justice and environmental protection. Yet clearly some EU institutions and processes really need fixing!
Hi Professor, thanks for the AMA. I've spent time working with World Bank employees on several projects. While not going into specics, do you think change must be instituted through large institutions such as World Bank? Our political system is inherently disabled in many ways abroad, and it seems that economics are the key force at play and will remain the major motivator in developing a sustainable future. Thoughts? The World Bank can play an important leadership role, and I know that the new World Bank President Jim Kim is committed to doing so. I'll do my best to help the institution fulfill its new commitment to work to end extreme poverty by 2030.
Prof. Sachs, it's always fascinating to read the endless retorts you and William Easterly have on the subject of development economics. Aside from what we're exposed to in numerous essays, how would you describe your relationship with him? There are days when I'm happier and days when I'm less happy. We're colleagues and friends, but sometimes I'm simply amazed (and not happy) when he declares that "aid has failed." This is simply NOT RIGHT!!! :-)
What is your opinion of lifelong learning and its potential to eradicate poverty? Lifelong learning, including online courses!!!, will be the way of the future. I'm in Moscow today, and the Deputy Prime Minister said exactly that too. Good news.
Dear Prof. Sachs, will you address the discussions about switching from the classical economic growth paradigm to a transition period towards a way down? thanks from Brazil. Yes, we will talk about new growth paradigms, certainly!
What do you think are the most important aspects that we need to take up in the United Nations post-2015 development agenda? The key is to establish a set of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) that cover all three major areas of sustainable development: economic development (including the end of poverty); social inclusion and lower inequality; and environmental protection. I'm hoping for a set of 10 concise SDGs to help guide the world during 2015-2030.
Dear prof. Sachs. I wonder if you consider the following case a "resource curse" Since the end of WWII, Greece (actually its elites) has received various money injections. Marshal Plan, "Jacques Delors" assistance, EEC and EU money, and €300bn on cheap loans. We have a situation with of great malfunctioning of institutions and citizens having no trust in them. We also have countless fraud cases, as well as a largely destroyed production base, since all our growth was on imports with borrowed money. Would you consider easy money as kind of a resource curse? I love Greece, I have to say. Gift to the world. Beautiful country, wonderful culture (and food!), unbelievable history, great friends. But alas, soft governance, corruption for too long, and now a harsh crisis that Germany should do more to ease. I am a believer that Greece would recover much faster if the government puts forward a clear growth strategy to motivate export-led growth and new business startups.
Why subjects relating to Sustainable Development are not part of the curriculum of the primary schools, high school and universities; if we know that is toward that direction to which we have to go? We have to start from schools to change our paradigm about development. What is your opinion about this gap? I am hoping that the world will have Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for the years 2015-2030, and that schools at ALL levels from primary to post-graduate will teach age-appropriate curricula about SD. You are right!
Greetings and thanks for offering what promises to be a fascinating course! My question would be: what do you see as the biggest global challenges to implementing Sustainable Development and where do you see the most inspiring innovations that look like they might overcome those challenges and where do you see the UN within this framework? Thanks. Have a look at the website for the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network (www.unsdsn.org) to have a look at the report to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon (Link to unsdsn.org) That describes, I hope, a good summary of the SD challenges will be discussing in class!
What role do you see art play in a sustainable society? Art plays a vital role for the health of the soul, for our wellbeing, which is a key purpose and part of Sustainable Development!
Your book "economics for a crowded planet" was the reason I went to study economics at university! My question is how would you go convincing corporations that are fixed on increasing the value of their stocks, to actually care about the environment? Many companies are already on side I'm happy to say. They see the future, and also the need to protect their reputations. Many CEOs actually want to do good. We still have to get more oil companies on board, that's for sure. And we need a sound regulatory policy in any event.
Dr Sachs, I am a fan of your works that I have read (The End of Poverty and The Price of Civilization) and wanted to thank you for taking the time to do this and for generally forwarding developmental economics around the world. My question is: if you could instantaneously achieve any one of your development goals which would you choose and why? I'd start with the health goals, since those are life and death. And then (or simultaneously) the hunger goal (obvious reason) and then education. Of course once people are alive and properly nourished, education becomes the KEY!
Dr. Jeffrey Sachs, First hand, I thank you for this opportunity to join you in learning from someone as knowledgeable as yourself, its a great honor for me. Im from Costa Rica, in 2006 I was honored with an opportunity to pursue an undergraduate degree at DePaul in business management. The first book I read was ¨The End of Poverty.¨ I used it throughout my college years for multiple papers and still consider it one of the best I have ever read. Where can this additional knowledge that I will acquire through your course take me? I am unemployed right now and wish to work for the private or public sector in matters related to finance-banking and sustainable development, can you help with this? How may we network an employment opportunity abroad or in Costa Rica? How may I assist you for future educational matters? Is there an opportunity to use my country as a hub for projects of this caliber? Thanks for writing, and joining the class. We can all learn from Costa Rica, which has had some very innovative successes in the "green economy." In general, I believe that Sustainable Development offers job opportunities in all sectors: government, business, and civil society (NGOs). Good luck!
Do you see the world shifting to a more eastern centred focus? By this I mean, the BRICS and the rising economic powers of the east will rise high enough to not be so dependant on the west? This could also values, like suggested by Kishore Mahbuban. Yes, the center of gravity of the world economy is tending to shift from the North Atlantic, where it's been for centuries, to the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Basin. The rise of China is a great game changer, together with the economic strength of Japan, Korea, Singapore, and others.
Professor Sachs the third world countries are in the developing rute. But they are doing this as India and China did it: sacrificing the natural resources. What are the options to new nations in order to have a real sustainable development? One key is to use the new information and communications technologies to the maximum, and to use renewable energy -- especially solar power and wind power -- to the maximum. Technology will be crucial for sustainable leapfrogging.
Thank you for your dedication and persistence! And thank you for this course - I am very excited to participate in this collaborative intention. For a number of years I have been exploring what I call Transformational Global Leadership, defined as "the ability to generate fulfillment of a seemingly impossible vision for every human being.". What are your thoughts on the need for new models of leadership designed to deal with current global challenges? Yes, we need transformational leadership, and can look at great examples in history: the fight against slavery, the fight against colonialism, the fight for civil rights, the fight against apartheid, the fight for human rights, and so on. In each case, bold, clear, powerful leadership played a key role.
When the government or culture in an area does not support elimination of poverty, have you seen other ways to make substantial progress, or is the government/leadership really the key to success or failure? Government is necessary. The tools of policy (taxes, regulation, public subsidies of science, public investment) are indispensable. They are not the only things that matter, but without government, broad-based and sustained development is not really possible. Of course, governments do not need to be perfect. Thank goodness!!!
What is the active participation expect from third world countries which are rich with biodiversity, in achieving millennium development goals? The countries rich in biodiversity (e.g. Costa Rica, Ecuador, Brazil, Indonesia, Kenya, Rwanda, etc.) hold that biological heritage for all the world. We should helping those countries, including with financial assistance through the Global Environment Facility (GEF) to preserve and protect the biodiversity.
Do you thing we can use some indigeneous vision as "Good living" to adapt them as sustainability solutions ? Yes, the question of "good life" or "happiness" is essential. Please see the 2013 World Happiness Report (online), which discusses this approach.
Last updated: 2014-01-19 18:27 UTC
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What makes the price of bitcoin rise and fall? Why Does Bitcoin Have Value? - D-Central New Bitcoin Regulations from The ECB! CME Bitcoin Futures! Why is Bitcoin's Price Rising? Introducing Our Stable Coin MenaCash

With inelastic demand, a change in price causes relatively large change in the price. 3. Inelastic supply. In the short term, the supply of coffee and tea is inelastic. If price rises, farmers can’t respond by increasing supply overnight. You have to clear the ground and plant more coffee plants. Listing in more than one market causes price fluctuation. When the shares of a company are listed with more than one market, a fall in the price in one market, due to certain factors, may result in a fall in the price in other markets as well. 9. Political changes causes share price fluctuation. It also causes the big fluctuation in the price of the bitcoin, where it has no backing and all the traders are largely depending on the bitcoin price and reproducing the unpredictability of the asset. Bitcoins market capital is nearly about 159 billion dollars which becomes the very important economical factor for the bitcoin price. The term “price volatility” is used to describe price fluctuations of a commodity. Volatility is measured by the day-to-day percentage difference in the price of the commodity. The degree of variation, not the level of prices, defines a volatile market. Since price is a function of supply and ABSTRACTIn its first decade, Bitcoin has not proven to be a practical money form for most circumstances, but it has become a staging ground for debate around the cultural role of money in society. This debate is poised between two related but ultimately incompatible techno-economic imaginaries: infrastructural mutualism and digital metallism.

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What makes the price of bitcoin rise and fall?

In this video, I give my opinion on why the price of bitcoin rises and falls over time. Some of the common reasons why Bitcoin's price rises are due to the attention of the media. Bitcoin is a ... Specifically, why does Bitcoin have value, and what causes its value to fluctuate? ... The price of Bitcoin fluctuates much faster than most stocks that are traded on the New York Stock Exchange. You'll find out what the causes of the 2017 bitcoin price increase are and at the end of this video, I'll also be sharing my opinions about the potential of bitcoin in 2017 and beyond. This short revision video looks at some of the causes of price volatility that we see in many commodity markets around the world. The examples of price volatility in sugar and in crude oil are ... Bitcoin price fluctuations could cause a net loss for the merchant. For the consumer, these fluctuations also mean their purchasing power can instantly change.

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